Category: News

Voter Suppression in the Georgia Governor’s Race

Thus far the Georgia gubernatorial elections have been associated with many instances of voter suppression whereby there have been some allegations that the state officials are trying to do away with the black vote. Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams are among the candidates who are campaigning for this post. Kemp, who is presently the secretary of the state and a candidate in the elections has refused to step down claiming that he wants to ensure integrity during the elections by diminishing voter’s suppression. This is so ironic because according to the new reports he is one of the officials who is killing the black voter’s power. There has also been leaked audio of Kemp complaining of an increase in the voter turnout. It is also this period when there have been many allegations of voter suppression, for instance, holding identity cards and oppression of the black community’s right to vote.

The Withholding of Identity Cards

Fifty thousand identity cards did not match with the state records because they contained some errors of like, signature mismatches. The cards were put on hold, and the owners were not allowed to vote until they fixed the problem within twenty-six days, failure to do so would mean the cards could be canceled. To worsen the matter, around seventy percent of the identity cards belonged to African Americans. In Gwinnett County, the county with the largest population was reported to have rejected a large number of ballots which were sent via mail. The ACLU also filed a lawsuit against Brian Kemp regarding this issue.

The Oppression of the African American Community

On their way to the polling station, forty black seniors were removed from a bus on which they were traveling in to on the basis that the bus was not authorized to carry them.  Here is a look at what happened.

During the August election, 214 polling stations especially from the rural areas where there were largely African American communities were closed down. The entire electioneering situation leads to serious debates. The ACLU filed two separate lawsuits against Brain Kemp claiming that everyone has a right to vote and the discrepancies cannot deny anyone a right to express their voting right. The judge then released an order to the officials which stated that rejection of ballots should be stopped and the citizens whose identity card had some errors be allowed to vote but the votes to be marked as provisional. The order further stated that the citizens be given a chance to correct the errors.

Will There be a Blue Wave on Tuesday?

The signs of a blue wave are slowly adding up. In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has been on the forefront trying to prevent a Congressional flip to the hands of the Democrats. According to many forecasters, there is likely to be a blue wave on November 6th.

The midterm elections will mark the half term of Trump’s presidency. This could see the end of the Republican control the Senate and House of Representatives. Should this come into fruition, the promises the president made during the campaign period may be impaired.

Why it matters

If the Democrats win the house this midterm election, they could eradicate all the gains and progress made by President Trump’s administration. While it’s not clear which party will be benefiting from the early voting, we could see numbers closer to that of the presidential election. However, this should not be a surprise. Since the 1950s, the president’s party always loses at least 24 seats in the midterm.

What implications does this have on investors?

Each of these results could pursue different policy initiates. Here is what we expect in each scenario.

If the Republicans keep the Senate and the Democrats take over the House

The overall stock market would be bullish. This is because a divided government will make it hard to make policy initiatives. When it comes to health care, the republicans and democrats may find it hard to find a common ground. A divided Congress would prevent major regulatory changes in the pricing of drugs. Other than that, the lawmakers might find it hard to reach a consensus when it comes to infrastructure development.

If the Democrats take over the Senate and the House

The overall stock market will be bearish. The Senate would pursue the same policies mentioned as their priorities. Additionally, they would pay special attention to legal protection for young immigrants brought to the U.S and lower the drug prices. It could also be a good sign for infrastructure. However, the bank sector would suffer. This is because the Democrats will pursue a tighter regulatory regime. In a nutshell, we could see sector-by-sector moves.

If the Republicans keep both but with a narrower house majority

The overall stock market will be bullish.  Furthermore, there will be an additional 10% tax cut on middle-income earners. However, we could see the U.S economy overheating in the long term. The key factor in determining how many seats are taken will depend on party polarization in the short-term.

No matter how the mid-election goes, President Trump will lean more on trade protection. Many polls suggest that 43% would vote Republican while 51% would vote in favor of Democrats. Should this transpire on Tuesday, we’re likely to see a blue wave.